Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 21.652792 22.838891 24.084208 25.494193 27.052479 28.729186 30.679413
2026-01-11 20.069591 21.727882 23.551063 25.722451 28.262823 31.172779 34.806375
2026-01-18 18.944879 20.850932 23.009494 25.668308 28.903716 32.780844 37.889669
2026-01-25 17.910709 19.952313 22.315730 25.302262 29.049765 33.706812 40.126246
2026-02-01 17.057871 19.188056 21.698426 24.938517 29.111195 34.462970 42.144857
2026-02-08 16.327088 18.515771 21.134085 24.575145 29.107952 35.087382 43.995035
2026-02-15 15.760997 18.006854 20.730888 24.371724 29.271558 35.913472 46.181036
2026-02-22 15.540898 17.907054 20.823088 24.798233 30.286426 37.977044 50.433097
2026-03-01 15.078338 17.477299 20.466953 24.599991 30.412429 38.759471 52.767209
2026-03-08 14.500987 16.877107 19.861356 24.027677 29.964139 38.641244 53.589426
2026-03-15 14.073164 16.451892 19.464665 23.716277 29.862557 39.026008 55.292667
2026-03-22 13.957361 16.422799 19.584343 24.117874 30.816354 41.111751 60.276342
2026-03-29 13.759297 16.286112 19.563494 24.333616 31.528597 42.917256 65.149184
2026-04-05 13.562039 16.142663 19.526166 24.521490 32.208911 44.738184 70.425236
2026-04-12 13.297044 15.897852 19.337378 24.474240 32.510433 45.931955 74.638340
2026-04-19 12.950103 15.531291 18.965592 24.136568 32.321592 46.235956 76.950822
2026-04-26 12.623725 15.182919 18.606878 23.801075 32.112932 46.480295 79.173529
2026-05-03 12.314890 14.849875 18.258668 23.465609 31.882384 46.660084 81.280563
2026-05-10 12.069433 14.596787 18.014988 23.277691 31.884375 47.274082 84.608043
2026-05-17 12.019069 14.609552 18.148175 23.671596 32.891898 49.927685 94.025198
2026-05-24 11.795263 14.375380 17.918263 23.488556 32.889554 50.571472 98.050577
2026-05-31 11.477449 14.003172 17.478788 22.959663 32.251844 49.859811 97.885245
2026-06-07 11.243856 13.744027 17.197346 22.671595 32.026931 49.990164 100.383293